Rasmus Ankersen book “Hunger in Paradise.”
Nokia had 50% market share. In <5 years their market share fell to 3%. Why did this happen?
Complacency, not wanting change. Nokia did not want to change the design of the phone, despite the industry changing.
Principle #1 Don’t blindly trust success
Principle # 2 Rethink your potential – and question the industry that you are in
Lego started in the toy industry, but now see themselves in the toy room industry. They feel they lose not just from children picking other toys from the toy aisle, choosing an iPhone over Legos.
Coca-Cola started in the soft drink industry, now find themselves in the beverage industry. They created a bottled water company to compete against water and healthier options than soft drinks.
Not truths ->outcome bias = good results means great internal performance/input and failures come from external sources
Truth: One should always question success, almost more scrutinizing than your failures.
Story that incompasses these not truths:
There is a football club in Europe that went from the bottom of the pack to 5th place indicated by the season board. Everyone involved in the game says “the board never lies.” The coaching staff was given ten year contracts, management signed no new players, and kept all players, and the stadium stayed the same. Management saw the success as only being internal, so these should have been the only variables to consider. The next season, they went back to the bottom of the list standings.
Think like a gambler: Gamblers say, “the list always lies.” They look at different statistics than the players, coaches, and managers to determine who to bet on. They knew that the team that was 5th one year was not sustainable and they were correct. Gamblers question why things are successful so that they know they can be successful the next time without having to rely on luck. Success and failure have both internal and external variables to them.